Buy or sell: Week 11 best bets

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After an absolutely brutal Week Nine, I’d like to let y’all know I’m returning refreshed and focused. I had a closed-door, players-only meeting, got some things aired out and I’m excited to go 1–0 this week. Or 4–0. And as a reminder, I’m not an expert by any stretch of the imagination. I’m just a college student who watches too much college football and places bets he can’t afford — like most of y’all. This weekly column is where I will give you my best bets for the week in college football. I am not responsible for any money lost, so don’t request money from me on Venmo.

Last Week: N/A (Bye Week)

Total: 15–8

No. 20 Kansas State at Texas(-7)

The last few weeks have been rough for Texas head coach Tom Herman and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. Fortunately for the latter, four key defensive starters should make their return this week against Kansas State after a much-needed bye week. I’m of the opinion that the poor form we’ve seen over the last month is due to injuries and inexperience, but with sophomore safeties Caden Sterns, B.J. Foster and DeMarvion Overshown back we’ll start to see a revamped Texas defense. Still, Kansas State has a dynamic rushing attack, and we’ve seen what running quarterbacks have done against Texas, healthy or not. Let’s hope head coach Chris Klieman won’t be a thorn in Texas’ side like former head coach Bill Synder was.

Pick: Kansas State(+7)

Marquee Matchup of the Week

No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama(-6.5)

The statistic you’ll hear way too much this week? LSU hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2011. Every year this rivalry is hyped up, and then we watch the Tigers get slaughtered. But this year might be different because of one dude: senior quarterback Joe Burrow. LSU has faced three Top-10 opponents this year and is 3–0. Alabama? One Top-25 opponent this year who was — hold on, I’m laughing hysterically — Texas A&M. LSU has certainly faced a more difficult schedule than Alabama, and Burrow is healthier than junior quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Pick: LSU(+6.5)

Lock of the Week

No. 11 Baylor(-2) at TCU

Thinking about changing “Lock of the week” to “What Big 12 team will screw me over this week?” With news of TCU senior quarterback Alex Delton transferring and the health of freshman quarterback Max Duggan up in the air, Baylor at -2 is a steal. Maybe Vegas is thinking Baylor will be caught looking ahead to next week against Oklahoma. Let’s see if the Cameron jinx on picking Big 12 games ends this week.

Pick: Baylor(-2)

Degenerate Gambler Bet of the Week

Appalachian State at South Carolina(-5)

These next three games are critical for the job security of Will Muschamp, South Carolina’s head coach. Meanwhile, Appalachian State continues to have a solid program including a win over North Carolina earlier this year. With Texas A&M and Clemson ahead of them, I think the Gamecocks will be caught looking ahead and potentially fall into a trap. These are the types of games the Mountaineers always seem to win.

Pick: Appalachian State(+5)